The EU election that the UK was never meant to vote in.
The planet of Chiron, ‘the wounded healer’ sits on the descendant of the UK 1801 chart. It will stay in orb until at least April 2021. However, Chiron remains in the UKs 7th house of relationships until 2029. What better symbolism of the way Chiron can open a deep and lasting wound than the UK’s bid to leave the European Union; more commonly known as ‘Brexit’.
Let me nail my colours to the mast before going further. I voted to leave the EU because I did not like the way the project was heading. I love the idea of a one-world government and everyone getting along but expecting the best of an ideal world to manifest with central banks and the influence of large corporations over a large government is, to me, a naive hope. In the same way that there was a good reason to separate church and state in the past, there is also now a dire need to separate corporation and state. Otherwise we will sleepwalk into a dystopian condition that George Orwell predicted in his book ‘1984’.
Other people may well have voted for Brexit for entirely different reasons but the reason I wince when those who wish to ‘Remain’ in the EU argue that ‘we did not know what we were voting for’ is that I did not listen to the lies politicians put forward on both sides. But let’s take a look at the 2019 EU election result for the UK to see if not knowing what we voted for resulted in a landslide turnaround in favour of remaining in the EU. After all, if we did not know what we were voting for in 2016 and suddenly the light of understanding dawns at the EU election, there should be a mass departure from the Leave campaign in favour of Remain.
The overall turnout for the 2014 EU election was 31%, which is quite low compared to mainland Europe, which is nearer 50%. Engagement in the European elections has been low traditionally because the electorate in the UK are not terribly engaged in EU politics.
In the 2019 EU election, the turnout in the UK was reported by the BBC to be around 37%. The curious thing is that the electorate was well aware of the Leave / Remain battle and like it or not, the EU election was always going to be seen as the second referendum that the Remain campaigners had fought for on the basis that we did not know what we were voting for on the original referendum.
So 63% of the voting public either could not be bothered to vote. They were either not interested in Brexit one way or the other, were fed up with the whole sorry business or chose not to express an opinion. Whatever the reason it would be fair to say that politicians of all colours will use the EU result as ‘the will of the people’, demonstrating why it is important to vote in elections if you have a preference to the outcome.
The ‘Brexit Party’ formed (so history will declare) just six weeks prior to the EU election, stormed into first place in every region of the UK other than Scotland and London (Northern Ireland result unknown at the time of this article), taking an average of 32% of the vote.
The Liberal Democrats, who campaigned on a ‘Stop Brexit’ message came second with 20% of the vote.
The other predominant Pro EU party, the Green Party did very well with 12% of the vote.
The Labour and Conservative vote I’ll leave to one side for the moment.
The Leave campaign argue that they smashed the vote with just one party standing on a single issue to leave the UK without a deal - on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms. Parliament had previously voted, by one vote, to rule out a no-deal Brexit. The people voted differently.
Conversely, the Remain campaign argue that they had a ‘surge’ of support demanding that the vote be put back to the people in a second referendum.
The BBC’s political scientist, Sir John Kevin Curtice, explained that they were both wrong. By adding up the definite Leave votes, including UKIP, the Leave campaign had 35% of the vote. By adding up the definite Remain votes, including Liberal Democrats, Greens and Change UK, the Remain campaign also had 35% of the vote.
No one can really claim to know if Labour, the official Parliamentary opposition party are in favour of leave or remain because there are divisions in their constituencies as well as their MPs. Many constituencies in the North of the country were strong Leave areas, which is what has caused the confusion in policy for them because they fear that staking a claim to a second referendum would lose them significant votes in traditional Labour heartlands. They hold 14% of the EU vote.
No one can really claim to know if the Conservative Party are in favour of leave or remain, even though the whole Theresa May debacle set them on a course to leave. This Party is where it all started, of course, with David Cameron trying to placate a section of his party whose ideology attracted them in part to the UK Independence Party, led by Nigel Farage. Having made a dogs breakfast of the whole thing, giving away our whole negotiating stance by agreeing to separate the divorce deal from the trade deal, they were punished in this EU election by getting only 9% of the vote.
Scotland’s SNP wiped the opposition off the map in a strong showing with 38% of the Scottish vote (but only accounting for 3% of the UK vote, thereby strengthening their inclination towards going for a second referendum on Independence from the UK.
The only other region that was not claimed by the Brexit Party was London; the Liberal Democrats winning this on their solid Remain campaign.
Political pundit ‘Sarah Kuenssberg’ observed that clarity won over the fudge that both the Conservatives and Labour had talked themselves into.
Had the UK political voting system been one of proportional representation rather then the first past the post system, I am left wondering how much different it would be, with the sudden disappearance of ‘safe seats’ and there being no need for career politicians to cling like limpets to their constituent majorities.
In as much as career politicians cling doggedly to their safe seats, so opinion between Leavers and Remainers are further entrenched by this result. What is clear, in my opinion, is that if those who voted to leave did not know what they were voting for in the original referendum, why is the vote between the opposing factions shifted barely at all? As we cannot know how to apportion Labour and Conservative votes, and we have to assume that those who did not vote are not really interested anymore, we can only return to the 52% Leave / 48% Remain result. The EU result indicates that even if the votes shifted slightly to go 52/48 in favour of remain, there were still be half the UK population unhappy with the result.
This leaves an obvious dilemma. If the EU result indicates both an entrenched Leave and Remain contingent, the leave campaign will argue that the original referendum must stand. And if there were to be a second referendum favouring the remain campaign by a margin similar to the original referendum, why would that be any more legitimate than the original?
The Remain campaign argue that ‘people have changed their minds’. According to the EU result this is merely wishful thinking.
If the voting public had voted overwhelmingly to remain in the UK via the EU election, I would be the first to acknowledge that a second referendum might indeed be a good use of democracy. That the result has proved to be anything but decisive in that direction, means I am inclined to insist that the original referendum is a true indication of the ‘People’s vote’.
So the UK is split in parliament and split in the major parties. The whole political system is broken and a new one has to be devised. This will take time and those inclined to lose out will resist as much as remain campaigners rail against the leave referendum result. The electorate is also split with no indication that there will be a magic sticking plaster to heal the open wound that Chiron symbolises so well. And if you accept that Chiron is indeed indicative of the dichotomy of opinion demonstrated within the UK political landscape, it is going to take many years to bring the country together.
But further than that, if we leave or remain within the EU, Chiron is going to influence our relationship with other countries for at least a decade.
