Astrology New Year chart 2013

New Year chart 2013

by Shane Ward - Written 25 July 2012


It is a date that is celebrated more than Christmas. The date of January 1st at midnight is a time to look forward to the future and hope for good things. So important was this date considered that many countries National charts came into existence on New Year’s Day.

After the 7 years war (1756 1763), Great Britain was short of money and looked to the American colonies as a way of plugging the financial whole. The Stamp Act of 1765 lasted no longer than one year when, with a change of Prime Minister, it was repealed. But it was only repealed on the proviso that the Declatory Act was passed instead, giving Great Britain the right to pass laws (and possibly impose further taxes) on the colonies. On 8 March 1766 the Act was passed, giving rise to the groundswell of resentment that led to the American Declaration of Independence. Pluto was at 9 degrees of Capricorn and its first return to that degree area, some 247 years later, includes the New Year Chart of 2013. What makes this degree area important is that the Sun is at 9 degrees of Capricorn on the 1st of January.

For European countries with a National chart starting on New Years Day, and this includes the UK, it places the Sun firmly on the root of the chart at the beginning of the 4th house. Our roots, our heritage and the subconscious aspects of our lives are all symbolically represented at this angle. It sits in opposition to the place to where we aspire to achieve and provides the very foundation upon which we build our lives. And on January 1st 2013, when the Sun once again gives us pause to consider our aspirations for the year ahead, the mighty planet Pluto will be in conjunction with that point. This symbolises a fundamental change that, if history is the benchmark on which to draw comparisons, will see the old foundation of our lives obliterated beyond recognition.

Pluto is the planet of rebirth and regeneration. The Universe demands that we burn the dross of old and outmoded functions in order to make way for inevitable change. It is the course of natural evolution that may take many years to be seen and I believe that this particular stage in our evolution is an important one.

In the New Year chart for the UK, Pluto is only a few minutes from crossing the third to the fourth house but is still close enough to be considered as ‘applying’ to the fourth house degree area. Consider how you might feel if you were standing in front of an oncoming train, how much its proximity might influence what you do next. In this analogy, the exact point of a planet reaching the degree area in question would be the same as when the train actually hits you. The only difference between the analogy of the train and Pluto applying to a degree area is that while you might sense what is coming - Pluto will take many years before what you registered subconsciously comes to light.

In secondary progression for example (where one takes the symbolic movement in of planets in the sky for one day to represent one year) Pluto will not reach the UK fourth house until June 2026. At this time transiting Neptune will conjunct the point where Uranus stands in the 2013 New Year chart. So if one considers that left wing politics (Neptune) joins the point of right wing politics (Uranus) it may take 13 years of Plutonian pressure for the regeneration of the path of evolution to strip away the partisan obstacles – none of which matters to those in need – in order to redress a greater balance between how rich and poor can co-exist without excessive power at one end and excessive poverty at the other.

Examples of the changes already in progress can be given today. The awesome power of Pluto in square to Uranus can be seen in the enormous shifts of the Arab Spring, the worldwide banking debt crisis, the Eurozone crisis, healthcare crisis, prisons crisis, pensions crisis. The need for wholesale reform seems to have touched every corner of the world. So the stage is already set but all the actors have yet to be revealed. Take Syria as an example. Bashir Assad is part of the old set up. He and his regime are the outmoded element that Pluto is set to remove – by force if necessary; Uranus demands reform and the Uranus Pluto square will still be applying in 2013. The change absolutely must happen and people will fight to the death to make it happen. So make no mistake about the rest of the list; Change WILL happen, and it is up to those involved to decide if they want it the easy way or the hard way. But equally important, it is up to us, the little people, to get involved in shaping what we want our future to become.

The Sun (in Saturn’s sign) is in conjunction with Pluto, which means that the leadership of the world are very much aware that change must happen. They must be part of the change or will have to step aside for someone else. The Sun / Pluto is also in sextile to Saturn, so from the Sun’s point of view it is already clear that the structures (Saturn) in place need changing but with Pluto in the frame they also know that plastering over the cracks of the current structure / system is not good enough.

Saturn is in a returning sextile to Pluto and is a fundamentally crucial time for any evolutionary cycle but with Pluto at the root of a New Year chart, the importance of the sextile is amplified – and it is personal to the very root of its people. It is burrowed deeply into the instinctive subconscious of the collective unconscious. Enough has already been experienced by the people for them to realise that it is in their personal interests to promote better structures. The Eurozone crisis may be particularly sensitive to this closing Saturn Pluto cycle and we may even see the Euro slowly crumble to dust.

The Moon in the Sun’s house of Leo shows the people concerned about their personal wellbeing and they want to be placed at the centre of future changes. And because the Moon is in the Sun’s house and the Sun is in Saturn’s house and Saturn is in Pluto’s house – everything comes back to Pluto. Everyone wants change. But it must be noted that not everyone wants the same change, and we must be very wary about how Saturn in Scorpio can promote secret structures, hidden agendas and behind the scenes negotiations.

A curious indicator to this lies in the connection between the Sun and Moon. The Sun is semi-square to the Moon’s North Node (The North Node is the direction the Moon is travelling in) and the Moon is in trine to the North Node. Sometimes it is easy to see where you are heading if you do nothing about it but very hard to change course if the actions required are unfamiliar to you. Sometimes the damage is already done, like the global economy for example, and the only thing you think you can do is hope that the experts can find a way out of it. But what if they can’t? What if the damage is terminal? At what point do we as individuals start to become involved? The North Node is in the sign of Scorpio, which suggests that everyone should at the very least try to understand what is happening. It is only by our understanding how we got into this mess that we can make the right decisions to ensure a more secure economic system for the future.

Neptune, normally the planet associated with fraud and deception, has started its journey through its own sign of Pisces, striking a very strong chord in tune with the awareness around Universal (or at least global) ideals. In whatever evolves at this time it is more than likely to include ideals designed not only to last but also ideals that will be of benefit to all. Finally, while Neptune remains in Pisces, we may get to realise how the entire monetary system is based on the illusion of confidence, how pensions were based on a system about as doomed as any pyramid scheme, about prisons so full that we have failed as a society and poverty so endemic that one truly does wonder whether we should consider the concept of a world without money, becoming a resource economy what would wipe out the concept of poverty and reality of starvation overnight.

Back to the 2013 New Year chart and we see that Neptune is in square to Jupiter in Gemini (Mercury’s sign. Mercury in Capricorn, Saturn’s sign, Saturn in Scorpio leading us straight back to Pluto). Jupiter’s belief systems are going to be the challenge to Neptune’s ideals, simply because individuals and nations are not in agreement as to what channel the evolution of the human race should be channelled. Huge gaps exist between religious doctrines and between political regimes.

Also Jupiter is in an inconjunct aspect to Pluto. The masses (Jupiter) of money (Pluto) is not working for the global collective. The world’s economy has run into a bit of a problem because too few people have accumulated too much money, while the majority of people, who have very little money, are expected to carry on consuming at ever greater rates to maintain the illusion of ‘growth’. Since the 1970s (just after the Uranus Pluto conjunction) the illusion of growth has been perpetuated with the introduction of plastic (virtual) money and debt. Now at the Uranus Pluto square we see the effects of unfettered market economies – especially the money market – where freedom (Uranus) to evolve (Pluto) without boundaries (Saturn) leads to chaos. Jupiter demands participation and according to this inconjunct aspect, the people are not being considered as central to any new solution or reform.

Jupiter is also inconjunct to Saturn, which should be noted as significant enough to consider within its cycle because the two planets are the societal planets and work quite visibly on the material world in their 20-year cycle. In 2010, when the cycle was in opposition, there was a time for reflection on how society should move forward. We can tell now that the politicians were not the only ones who were not being honest with us. Institutions that we have entrusted to facilitate our daily lives and the security of our old age have let us down. Our participation (Jupiter) in the general order (Saturn) of life is being stagnated rather than enriched. It is perhaps no coincidence that the International Monetary Fund has indicated austerity until at least 2020, when the Jupiter Saturn cycle starts with a new conjunction.

Venus and Mars, another planetary partnership, are important to consider in relation to each other. Venus desires and Mars acts. Without Venus, Mars has no meaningful desire to act, so the cycle is an important one to consider.

Interestingly Venus is in trine with the Moon (the people) and Mars is in trine with Jupiter (our participation) but the only link between the two is a small but very close semi-square almost midpoint to the Sun Pluto conjunction. What it signifies is very important to the people who are not powerful or mega rich who would like to keep everything as it is thank you very much.

Venus in Sagittarius is going to take a global view of any issues. It sees the world’s economic crisis as symptomatic of a huge problem – too huge in fact for the likes of an individual to have any effect or impact big enough to make a change (which is what the rich and powerful are counting on). The ease aspect of the trine expresses the ease with which we can all grumble about the state of the world but consider our individual resource (Moon in Leo) as not much of a contribution. So we give up and trust that someone else (Venus Mars semi-square) will actually do something. But Venus is in Jupiter’s sign and Jupiter is in trine to Mars, thereby offering a possible link to how the little person can have an impact. We can do (Mars) something by participation (Jupiter) particularly in writing (Jupiter is in Gemini, ruler of the printed word) and by speaking out as a group (Mars is in Aquarius).

Furthermore, Mars in Aquarius is in sextile aspect to Uranus in Aries, creating a mutual reception, giving us the opportunity (which is what the sextile aspect offers) to use the freedom of the Internet and various emerging pressure groups, like Avaaz and 38 degrees, to join our voices together in the hundred thousands – even the millions. (Avaaz, for example, has 15 million members at the time of writing this article). Even Mercury (communication) is in square to Uranus, implying that if we want our voice to be heard we have to say something where it counts. So it is time to shake off the apathy. There is no point in barstool preaching because the people who think you don’t care enough to do anything about it not in the bar. We have to act together where it will count to make the changes we want to see. The Arab Spring started on the Internet.

So the 2013 New Year chart gives the world, no – gives you the individual - the opportunity to get involved and to become part of the solution. Politics is changing and people power on the Internet is possibly why governments have been so keen to attempt slapping bans and gagging orders on it. We already know that we cannot rely on the probity, responsibility and integrity of any large profit making organisation or the associations that they donate money to. So now you must decide if you are happy for them to make changes on your behalf without consulting you – or do something about it.

If you bear in mind that changes will happen with or without us, the significant difference being that if we get involved there is much more of a chance that the changes we would like to see have a chance of happening. And if you don’t? Well let’s just say you might not like the alternatives. Pluto does not sit on the fence. You will be dragged in, so the question really is whether you do it willingly or unwillingly.

Oh yes, and Happy New Year.

Olympic Debt

I remember the moment, where I was and what I was doing, when who would host the Olympic games was announced. I recall punching the air in triumph when the announcer declared ‘London’.

I was at work, just a normal day at the office, on what was otherwise an unremarkable day. But winning the Olympic bid changed my perspective of the future.

Not everyone was happy about it. I heard complaints about how expensive it would become. I heard about how much strain the Olympics would place on the tax payer in general. I heard people whinging about what a waste of money it was and that we, the little people, would get nothing from it.

…And then the credit crunch happened.

The debt crisis that we had all so merrily participated in had finally tripped over itself in spectacular fashion. No one stopped to think about how expensive it would become. No one cared about how much strain the austerity measures that would have to follow would place on the tax payer in general. No one complained before it affected them personally.

The reason I was so pleased about London winning the Olympic bid was not through any enthusiasm for sport, or patriotism, or some strange collective fervour in support of increased business and trade. The UK Government, like any Government, would have been pleased with winning the bid for all of the above except sport. The athletes would have been pleased for the promotion of sport. The everyday UK citizens who were so pleased about the Olympics were soon discovered that any chance of actually seeing it live was going to be a lottery and they would have little choice between watching the 100 meters final and the handgun qualifiers.

The reason I was so pleased about London winning the Olympic bid was because my house would increase in value. That was it. I had plans to move out of London and wherever the Olympics had been held in the past, one of the major effects was an increase in house price. The average house price increase was about 55%. Los Angeles was only 16% and Athens was a whopping 185% but as far as I was concerned, any increase that made buying a house outside London cheaper for me was a bonus. So around 2011 might be a good time to sell up.

…And then the credit crunch happened.

With the Olympics only a few weeks away, I am still in London. Interestingly, houses in London are holding their value while in other areas they have fallen and may just be starting to rise around the Olympic area. But the effect of the debt crisis also crushed the property market by making it all but impossible to get decent mortgages (especially 100% mortgages for first time buyers). Those of working age are insecure about their jobs and are less likely to consider moving house. There is an overwhelming osmosis of protectionism that spreads from the pensioner watching the pennies of a state pension to the banks; reluctant to lend to each other or to small business. Growth needs people to spend money but it just isn’t happening.

In the years between the announcement of the London Olympics to the opening of the games itself, I can imagine that – like me – the perspective of individuals would have changed greatly.

In hindsight, and in consideration of the debt crisis that threatens to engulf all of Europe and possibly the world, I remain please that London won the Olympic bid. Not because of the value of my house, which has no value at all if there are no buyers able to offer the asking price, but because I would rather there be the potential for tourism, new business and increased trade filling up the treasury coffers at a time when all of the above may be scarce in years to come.

Had the Olympics been awarded to Paris, as splendid as I am sure it would have been, the little Island of the UK would have been marginalised consequentially because all travel would stop at France; opportunities for business, tourism and trade terminating at the coastline of mainland Europe. The UK, like an impenetrable castle surrounded by an enormous moat, would have become geographically excluded. We would be as an entity not invited to the party, sitting ostracised in an empty room next door with a curled up cheese sandwich for company and listening without pleasure to the distant music.

Because of the Olympics in London, there has been an artificial increase in jobs but, never the less, those jobs pay money and the way out of any recession is for people to spend money. If there had been no Olympics in London, it is fair to say that there would be fewer jobs in the UK and less money spent. So when the Olympic party is over, the UK may have held back the full force of austerity for just a little while longer than it would have without it.

But the party must end, and so far my mundane astrological observations (I won’t call them predictions) about the global economy and how deeply the recession is likely to get has been more accurate than all the politicians, economists and experts in the financial world (see the start of my article series on the Barbault Scale). The debt crisis we find ourselves in swamps any quibbles about the expense of the Olympic games, but I believe it is going to take a Herculean effort to solve the problems that lie ahead.







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United Nations: A Need For Reform

It is June 2012 and the Arab Spring that started in January 2011 has changed the political map in the most spectacular and bloody fashion. Everything from protests to open warfare has been required to oust old and outworn regimes in favour of a more democratically accountable government system.

Some countries have succeeded better than others so far; it is early days. However, there are atrocities coming out of Syria that it seems we, as a world, are helpless to prevent. Ordinary people are being executed by militia attached to the Syrian government. There are United Nations (UN) monitors in the region and the UN ambassador, Kofi Annan, struggles like a toothless tiger to get the oppressive Syrian regime to halt the bloodshed.

The United Nations can do no more than send out strongly worded condemnations – and Syria knows this. There are two countries blocking more stringent action, Russian Federation and China, among the five permanent members with the power of veto and they will not agree to anything more than has already been done.

Not only does this leave the other three permanent members impotent, (United States, United Kingdom and France), it effectively ties the hands of all other nations (non permanent members) who can only sit and watch the genocide in one of the most politically sensitive areas in the world.

Surely in a world where reform and the demand for greater democratic accountability is costing lives, isn’t it about time that the United Nations itself was reformed?

The world has changed greatly since the original set up by the five permanent members. Perhaps at the time it was right that they possessed the power of veto to prevent any one of them being forced to agree to something that was against the interest of their country. And yet over the last 20 years or so, all the way back to the first Iraq war in 1981, it has been clear that the interest of the permanent member states have often restricted the correct course of action.

Therefore I suggest that now is the time for the five permanent members to give up their veto and for all countries participating in the United Nations to have an equal voice. Preventing genocide in Syria should not be blocked by Russia, China or any other country with a vested interest in that country or its resources.

Yes there may be issues with majority voting and how high a majority should be before a motion is carried. Yes there may be problems with how to tackle compliance from countries that may not agree with a United Nations ruling; perhaps there should be a rule book setting this out as part of the conditions for membership. But reform is clearly needed and maybe should be demanded by the people of the world.

We have risen up against oppressive regimes. We have rebelled against capitalist greed. We have rebelled against unnecessary war and yet we are stuck with the only global council, operating a system predating the mobile (cell) phone and the computer.

The Internet has made the world a smaller place. People in the world have access to interacting with geographical areas more than ever before. And they care. And they witness atrocity and wrong doing and wonder why the powers that be tinker with ineffective gestures.

The UN representatives are OUR representatives. Maybe we need to get involved by lobbying our governments – particularly the permanent member states. Perhaps a group like Avaaz would like to take the lead. The United Nations is no longer fit for purpose and must undergo a major transformation.

Venus Occultation Of The Sun 2012

The Occultation of Venus on 5th June 2012 heralds a pivotal moment in the communication industry, particularly the unstoppable rise in electronic books and the death of print newspapers. It also heralds a pivotal moment in the travel industry; but more of that later.


So why deduce that the occultation of Venus relates to communication and travel? Normally anything to do with either of these would be more akin to Mercury. The answer is where the Venus occultation always takes place, in either Gemini or Sagittarius, which are the signs that resonate with the 3rd / 9th house axis.

The Venus occultation takes place in pairs, around 7 or 8 years apart, approximately every 121 years.

The way we see the delivery of information is undergoing a rapid change, particularly in the case of the phone hacking scandal currently being investigated in the UK under the Leveson Inquiry. In the meantime, whilst Mr Murdoch, of the company ‘News International’, confirmed in his witness testimony to the very real demise of print newspapers, there are reports elsewhere of an ever increasing trend towards the purchase of electronic books. This is in many ways a completely foreseeable prediction, at least in the notion that from the birth of electronic books there was an intention by Time Warner, Amazon and Microsoft, announced around the year 2000, to make it a successful and competitive industry by 2020.

This means that the demise of the newspaper may be considered loosely as relevant to the Venus occultation because the timing in and around the introduction and rise of electronic books and the decline of print newspapers envelopes the dates of the two occultation events of 2004 and 2012. But is it really big enough to warrant association with an event that occurs only every 121 or so years?

Some of the historical events that can be considered as subject matter relating to the Venus occultation and occurred close enough in tolerance to the time of the Venus occultation are well documented in Venus Transit by Anders Bjarstedt and Carl Johan Calleman Susan Custer’s Transit of Venus 2004. In terms of tolerance, I believe it is perfectly reasonable to include the time from the Venus Hesperus opposition to the great conjunction. The articles mentioned offer different perspectives of what may happen with the current 2004 – 2012 occultation, however, I believe that some relevant historical events have been overlooked, which if we include them here, makes sense to the indicators of real events happening just before the occultation of 2012.

In order to make sense of current events, it is important to view them in the light of the events that occurred under previous Venus occultation events; the premise being that such a rare event must surely produce an event equally as rare in the history of the human race that is global in its impact.

1519 – 1526

In 1519 Ferdinand Megellan set out to sail around the world. The first time communication with other countries would become perceived as a round earth and not a flat one. The perceptual shift in people’s values would have been tremendous. While Megellan himself did not complete the voyage (he was killed on an island in the Philippines in 1521), some of his crew completed the journey by 1522.

1631 – 1639

The Danish mail service began 1624, Sweden 1636 and in May 1631 the first French Newspaper was founded. The above is cited by others as being synonymous with the Venus occultation. However, I believe the timings of these events are way out of tolerance. Instead, I believe that the publication of Galileo’s “Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems” is much more relevant. Would it seem too much of a coincidence to have evidence in the previous Venus occultation that the world was round, and then to have it proved that the world went around the sun? Once again our value systems are challenged and our awareness reprogrammed.

One must not forget in all this that the emphasis is placed on the printed word. The ability to read was becoming essential to many but its popularity would be fomented by availability and cost. So the first printing press in 1639, set up in Massachusetts, made available the one powerful medium outside of public speaking that was capable of altering the perceptions and understanding of the masses.

1761 - 1769

Astronomers, 120 of them, unite around the world in an attempt to measure the distance between the sun and the earth in June 1761. Where Galileo was arrest for heresy for stating that the earth travelled around the sun, observers were able to predict the next occultation and observe it. A second attempt was made by Captain James Cook, who sailed to Tahiti to observe the Venus transit.

Science was advancing beyond in other areas too. An important event in 1769 was when James Watt was granted a patent for improvements to his steam engine that became the catalyst to starting the industrial revolution and the popularity of travel by train. Such advances made it possible for people to reach greater distances in shorter times, while at the same time expanding the opportunity for knowledge to be shared.

1874 - 1881

The invention of the telephone by Alexander Bell in 1874 was in its infancy but the race to patent it in 1875 demonstrates that the idea existed in more than one place in the world. The communications revolution that emanated from this invention was phenomenal.

Likewise, in 1875, George R Carey of Boston, Massachusetts, outlined the earliest system relating to what we know in the 21st century as film and television, proposing the use of selenium as a means for transmitting photoelectric images.

Bell and Thomas Edison formed the Oriental Telephone Company in 1881 just a few months before the second transit of Venus. However, Edison was forming many companies throughout 1881 in connection with the electric light, which changed the world of communication in many ways and light has proved to be just as valid in terms of communication in the twenty first century via fibre optic cables.

2004 – 2012

In June 2004 ‘SpaceShipOne’ became the first private manned spaceflight. Mojave Air and Space Port was licensed as the first commercial space port. This is the only reported connection that fits the profile in relation to previous Venus occultation events. The world of travel is a theme that fits, starting from going around the world in person, circling the Sun, plotting the distance to see how far the Earth travels, travel by train, travel by sound and by light and travel by image.

The Venus occultation occurs in the sign of either Gemini or Sagittarius. Both houses are connected by axis to communication and travel. In essence they provide the mediums by which people connect to each other, be that through the written word or on an aeroplane. Venus reflects the values we place on our lives, our environment in relation to our sense and the things we appear to possess. And as the Venus occultation occurs in no other sign, one may infer that our perceptions of how we connect and interact with our world and with others is of particular importance, because the more we come into contact with people and places, the greater is the opportunity for knowledge.

In 2012, at the time of writing this article and about four weeks from the Venus transit, it was announced that plans were being made to mine asteroids in space. Whilst the commercial aspects fit into the thread of all the above pioneering work, the most relevant aspect of this venture is the formulation of turning water in outer space to liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen to use as fuel, thus pioneering the next stage in much longer distance space flights. At first the company plans to use robots for mining (travel by robot?) but it will not be long before humans are needed to enter space for commercial reasons, and what is currently way beyond the reach of everyday humans may have the potential to become part of some people’s everyday work. Therefore it is not unreasonable to consider our solar system as the next region of travel will be the next step in the scientific advancement of the human race.

The next Venus occultation occurs in 2133. Perhaps the prospect of interstellar travel may become possible. Or is it likely that we will see the beginning of communication through mind alone? In either case it seems certain that science will be the driving force behind whatever new advance we make. But curiously, it also appears that Venus occultation turns up particularly at the time we make important scientific advances in the field of communication and travel. Unfortunately it will be 121 years before we can observe what turns up at the next Venus occultation, but I am confident that if I am right about mining in space, it will be an event that becomes a reality within 50 years of 2012.

Barbault: The Prediction Revealed

Written by Shane P Ward
Publication date 3rd May 2012

Planetary cycles in astrology, it would appear, can reveal powerful forces at work that processes in which events may be deduced. This is quite different from examining one planet and its relationship to an astrological sign or of transiting planets to a national chart.

When two planets occupy the same degree point in the zodiac they are said to be in conjunction. This is the point where the energies portrayed by the planets in question are full of potential and anything can happen. It is a seed that will grow into something. The faster moving planet then pulls away from the slower moving planet and will make many aspects to each other including squares, trines, oppositions and more. At the first outgoing square there is a chance to make a correction to the course of what was started. At the opposition there is the full view, the flowering, of what was started. At the waning square there is the necessity to understand all that has gone before so that when the two planets meet again, there is a new seed to grow again.

Every planetary pairing completes its own cycle but the ones I have studied for the purpose of this article are the societal planets of Jupiter and Saturn and the generational planets of Uranus, Neptune and Pluto. They are the planets relevant to the Barbault Scale.

My first mention about the method devised by Henri Barbault was in May 2008, around two months before the credit crunch had been heard of and companies like Lehman Brothers collapsed (Neptune Ingress Into Pisces). We were aware of concerns around ‘sub prime’ mortgages from around 2007 but there was no indication of what happened next.

Then I wrote about the Barbault Scale proper in 2008 when the credit crunch became known and again with the Barbault Warnings in 2009. This article represents the third in the series.
I predicted that we were in for a bad time from 2016 to 2020 but I wasn’t sure how it would work.

It was then that it became apparent that Pluto was about to transit the 9 to 10 degrees of Capricorn that sits at the root of any nation with a New Year chart – of which there are many. It was an opportunity not to miss in terms of mundane astrological prediction. If Pluto passing the 4th house of so many nations did nothing, it would be difficult to argue for the validity of astrology ever again.

As it turned out, I had the knowledge of something in the economic world sounding a bit ominous, the Barbault Scale telling me that something unpleasant would have to happen to make the scale valid. So I had stuck my neck out in 2003 and made a prediction that we were going to experience something not very great in 2009. In fact the beginning of the credit crunch could be claimed to be as early as August 2008 but I could live with a variance of four months.

So the Barbault Scale had told me that something was going to happen in 2009 but I had no idea what at the time. But if what I now believe is right, then 2009 was just a light Hors d’oeuvre compaired to the main course that is yet to be served.

The pessimists will simply agree with the findings I place before you with a nod and no great surprise. The optimists who think that someone is going to wave a magic economic wand and the nightmare of austerity will go away will surely want to reject my findings as a fantasy devised from meaningless and impossible symbolism. When I first began studying astrology, it was my intention to prove that it worked – or did not work. And to do that one must study hard and deeply to understand the subject and then to produce something from it. This is my intention today.

So before I offer you the evidence supported by the planetary cycles that pertain to future events, I wish to make it plain from the start that my findings support the notion that there will be a global economic depression from 2016 (possibly up to a year earlier) to 2020. It is my belief that because the causes have already happened we are merely going to witness the effects. But it will not be pleasant and I do not rule out the possible spin offs of hostility, poverty and destitution. No one will come out of it unscathed. I do not see this as a pleasant prediction but a very important one.

The planetary pairs I have investigated are as follows:

Pluto Neptune
Pluto Uranus
Pluto Saturn
Pluto Jupiter
Neptune Uranus
Neptune Saturn
Neptune Jupiter
Uranus Saturn
Uranus Jupiter
Saturn Jupiter

Each pairing has its own connection, perhaps better understood if you use colour as an analogy. If for example Pluto were blue and Neptune red, the combination would produce purple. What shade of purple depends on the amount of each colour used of course. If Uranus were yellow then Pluto Uranus would be green and Neptune Uranus would be orange. The picture we end up with depends very much on our use of the colours available. It is a simplified explanation but sufficient to understand how I have examined the planetary cycles that follow.

Barbault and the outer planets

Pluto Neptune

Pluto ingressed into Capricorn (2008 to 2023) just in time to throw some material perspective into how fair our capitalist system serves our society. Clearly the credit crunch proved that the unnecessary risks taken with the world’s money was unsustainable. Pluto in Capricorn demands material evolution. This involves changes to systems that do not serve humanity as a whole and will, if necessary, result in some painful processes. As the world hit a debt crisis that will take many years to pay the price for, it will become impossible for the system of capitalism to continue as if nothing had happened.

Neptune was in Aquarius (1998 to 2012) when the credit crunch occurred but was also in Aquarius when it started. The Barbault scale began with a very healthy plus period from 1996 to 2002, suggesting the rise of the ‘yuppie’ (Young up and coming person). Even though credit cards were an invention of the 1970s to try to bring a stagnant economy into some semblance of growth, the 1990s was in many ways the boom period of the ‘buy now – pay later’ society.

Consider that the generation that was born in the 70s grew by the 90s into the first adults to live by the credit card as if it had always been there; it is not so unreasonable a suggestion with the outer planets, that the effects produced are over a long period of time.

Neptune’s ideal to benefit the group did not exist within selling of toxic debt packages but unfortunately, those with the power to disregard the well being of the collective could only be stopped by the universal principle of cause and effect. Without proper boundaries, the selling of debt for profit outgrew itself and went the way of the dinosaur.

Neptune ingressed into Pisces (2012 to 2026); the point just beyond where this article is written. The ideals of society are tested for their appeal to humanity as a whole. Therefore special interest groups, or elite members within small groups who cannot prove to be helpful towards society as whole, will be either opposed by the collective or dissolved to make way for something that will. Neptune is strong in its own sign, so it would seem reasonable to expect a greater moral compass coming out of the debacle that the world debt crisis is proving to be. But the broad brush strokes of how the humanitarian fight back is to manifest must be looked at in the Pluto / Neptune cycle.

In 2012, the Neptune Pluto cycle is in a waxing cycle that is in a septile aspect (51 degrees: The circle divided by 7) and will reach the sextile aspect by 2030. Having said this, it must be said that the Neptune/ Pluto aspects hover back and forth for many years. The first septile aspect from the conjunction in 1892 occurred in 1937. Since then the Neptune / Pluto cycle progressed to a sextile aspect in 1951 before slipping back to the septile aspect in 2002.

Much is not understood about the septile aspect because it is not traditionally employed by many astrologers. I do not propose to explore it in this article but one many wish to consider history from the semisextile of 1917 to 1937 and then the septile from 1937 to the sextile of 1949 to consider the collective unconscious mood of the world over that time. The sextile of 1950 to the peak of its progression in 1971 is quite easy to see, being that it was a period of progression from World War 2 to the point where the world economy had overstretched itself in distorted ways to prompt difficult times throughout the 1970s. One can therefore infer that the progress of our evolution reached a certain point where a period of reflection should have prevented us from going horribly wrong.

But the fact is that we did go horribly wrong in 2008 and we are possibly going to relive the rather stark times of the 1970s (this from a UK historical perspective) as a result. The fact that the previous 52 degree aspect between these two planets occurred in 1938 should leave you with no doubt that if anything is true about the septile, it is that we live in times of great uncertainty. Conversely I do not believe that we are about to plunge into World War III but have no illusion that conflict will arise. The question we must ask is whether our solution to the conflict benefits the whole world and not just a part of it.

Pluto Uranus

Uranus, the planet of divine discontent, in Aries (2011 to 2019) places an individual perception collectively into the mix that demands reform. The Arab Spring is an example but there are many reforms in progress that is likely to change our world remarkably over the next ten years or so.

Uranus is in a waxing phase from Pluto that will reach a critical square in 2016. This is an extremely important moment that we must pay full attention to. The original conjunction in 1965 signalled our breaking away from the outmoded attitudes of the post-war era and into one that placed an emphasis on the building of work and individual worth to the collective. But by doing so, people aimed for a better life style that broke away from the notion of the class structure that existed in the previous Uranus / Pluto cycle (1850 to 1963). The shattering events of the previous wars made way for new ideas and new opportunities.

So by 2016, fifty three years after the cycle began, we can see if the path the world has chosen is producing the material fruits of the vision laid out at the conjunction. What we find presently is that the divide between rich and poor still exists, so although the principle of class structure is long since rejected, the opportunity to better one’s way of life is still dependent on affluence. This will perhaps be felt more so when the effects of austerity measures created by the debt crisis, caused by the greed of the rich, begin to hit the less well off to the point of crisis. What the Uranus / Pluto square will do is force a change – be it through protest or insurrection at worst, to relieve the burden of poverty from those who will bear the most pain and are given no choice but to force reform for survival.

Pluto Saturn

Saturn and Pluto (1982 to 2020) made a conjunction in Libra starting a new cycle that explored the right way to develop trade and diplomacy within a collective framework. Within this structure the beginning of the Euro came to pass, evolving the vision of the European Union conceived within the previous Saturn Pluto cycle.

In 2012, Saturn is in its waning phase from square to the last sextile in 2013 before a new cycle begins in 2020. As Saturn is the structural planet that creates an appropriate framework for society to function, we begin to see how critical this period really is.

Saturn will be in Scorpio when the closing sextile occurs, suggesting a crackdown on illegal activities and investigation into wrong doing in general. In the UK the Leveson Inquiry is a good example of what I mean, albeit that this particular issue started a year before the sextile, however, one must argue on this point that the kind of influences I am talking about do not just happen smack bang on an aspect. The cycles referred to here are long term events that move slowly. Saturn and Pluto is a 33 year cycle so one might accept that there is a natural evolution that carries the cycle forward rather than a sudden event at a certain point. In contrast, the Neptune Pluto cycle is just under 500 years long.

Saturn essentially demonstrates the structure that we live in at this particular moment. Like all structures it is subject to change and improvement. With Pluto there is a demand that an evolutionary momentum of a certain level is maintained. If it is not then the world can hit a crisis under which that change is forced. It seems clear, given the current situation and also that money available until around 2020 is going to be scarce, that basing our evolution on the current monetary system is not an option.

Because Saturn is a societal planet, the Saturn Pluto cycle is one of the more noticeable events in Barbault’s revelations. For example, the digging up (Pluto) of hidden (Scorpio) evidence for the sake of natural justice (Saturn) may well relate to revelations about nuclear capability in Iran as much as it may reveal structural weaknesses in corporations.

But most important is the way in which the Saturn Pluto cycle plays out on a level that many people feel they can actually do something. In as much as the law (Jupiter) is there to see justice done (Saturn) the laws that no longer reflect the needs of an evolving society must change. Examples of how the law changes include the obvious refrain of humanity to offer human sacrifice, the abolition of slavery and the development of human rights enshrined in law. So when the Saturn Pluto cycle is in conjunction in Capricorn in 2020, there lies the possibility of us examining how our world is administered, its regulations and the effectiveness of its functions; including the way capitalism presents an unfair path to security and lifestyle for many.

Pluto Jupiter

The Jupiter Pluto cycle is the fastest of the Barbault cycles. The current cycle started its conjunction in Sagittarius in December 2007 and will complete in Capricorn in November 2020. So if Pluto in Sagittarius reflected our evolution into globalisation then Jupiter reflected our participation in it. Consequently it follows that our participation at the conjunction of 2020 will be (it is hoped at least) wholeheartedly in line with the will to regulate what goes on in our capitalist system to ensure that nothing like what we are yet to experience in its full horror will ever happen again.

Jupiter opposes Pluto in 2014, which is the time where we are likely to understand the full extent to which our complicity in the current austerity measures will cost and, crucially, what we as individuals will have to contribute. It is probable that with Jupiter in Cancer, we will be inclined to look to our own nations for some form of protection from the onslaught. Not everyone will be in a position to escape it. However, it will be a time for governments to exercise compassion as well as responsibility. It will be a time when political ideals will count for nothing if the electorate suffer because of them.

Neptune Uranus

This last point brings us rather neatly back to Neptune, having completed all the Pluto cycles in Barbault. Neptune’s first cycle to a lesser planet is with Uranus. The current Uranus Neptune cycle started at the conjunction of 1993 in Capricorn. The ideals (Neptune) of freedom (Uranus) from regulation (Capricorn) begin here. With this notion the banks took off in pursuit of ever greater profit but without thought to the consequences. It took just 15 years for it to collapse and the cost of this is now very evident.

Likewise within the same time period, the Euro came into being. Because of the spectacular way the debt crisis went global there is every possibility that the Euro will cease to exist in its present form; the opportunity to examine this arrived at the first waxing semi sextile in 2011. The first major casualty was Greece whose debt structure demands crippling austerity measured that few people seriously believe is manageable. Behind them are Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Unemployment is at record levels and there are no green shoots of recovery on the horizon.

The Uranus Neptune cycle’s first hard aspect is the semi square (45 degrees), which will occur in 2019, placing yet more pressure on the year 2020 to seek release from the current oppressions. With Uranus then in Taurus there is a strong indicator for the ideal (Neptune) to tackle purposefully (semi square) the reform (Uranus) of finance (Taurus with Venus in aspect). Indicators exist therefore to suppose the very real possibility that the Euro as a currency will have to be abandoned because the structure upon which it was built has proved not to work across all member nation states. Curiously it may be possible that abandoning the Euro could be the very thing, said now to be an important mechanism for growth, to stimulate the growth in the economy that governments of the world hope for.

Neptune Saturn

The Saturn Neptune cycle conjunction began in 1989 in the year that the Berlin Wall fell. Soviet communism had dissolved towards the end of the previous Saturn Neptune cycle that began in 1952. The previous cycle started in November 1916, just two months before the start of the Communist Revolution began. What became a superpower in the 20th century took just two Saturn Neptune cycles to fall apart.

Neptune dissolves what Saturn structures. Communism is a very Neptunian ideal that promised opportunity for everyone. History reports that the real effect of any communist system in the world has not produced the ideal for which it was designed. Saturn, on the other hand, is a planet of perspective and a sense of belonging that must be present to give structure and stability the Neptunian idea.

Saturn opposed Neptune by aspect in June 2007, challenging any structure that did not have a secure structure appropriate for the time. It is not so strange then that the sale of debt (debt comes under Neptune) started to unravel with sub prime mortgages in 2007 and ultimately crashed in 2008.

The waning square occurs in November 2015 and with Saturn in Sagittarius and Neptune in Pisces, the ‘correction’ that needs to be applied will have a global impact. Politicians in the UK who seem to be incapable of honesty named the ‘credit crunch’ but insisted there would be no recession. Then the credit crunch turned into a recession and became known as a debt crisis, but there would be no double dip. Then there was the double dip recession. Apparently we cannot trust those who control the very monetary systems that we invest in. Ordinary tax (Saturn) payers (Neptune) paid millions to shore up the banks. Following on from this will be massive job cuts across the board, high unemployment and higher taxes. In 2012 we have only seen (in the UK) about 12 percent of all the proposed cuts. When the waning square hits in 2015, the ordinary tax payer will have a much clearer idea of what the credit crunch really did and what must be done to ensure that it is never repeated.

Neptune Jupiter

The Jupiter Neptune cycle originating in January 1997 reached its closing semi square in January 2008. The belief (Jupiter) in an ideal (Neptune) is a pretty powerful combination and resonates strongly to the confidence that money markets need to promote growth in the financial sector. On the other hand it also resonates to fraud, which one could say that – certainly without the factual structure of Saturn – the entire stock market is based on a lie. The share prices are worth what they are worth because that is what they are believed to be worth. Money in its physical presentation is exactly the same, which is why countries believe they can print more money if necessary without devaluing the currency. Quantitative easing was so defined by Japan in 2001 as a means to pull the country out of sudden danger of deflation. It turned out to be unsuccessful.

Since the credit crunch, a number of countries, including the United States, have issued bonds as well as quantitative easing to halt the economic downturn (another phrase used in the UK rather than recession) while pushing interest rates to as low as they can go. But confidence (Jupiter) of the banks, particularly affecting the inter-bank lending (LIBOR) rate squashed virtually all lending by banks to each other, making it very difficult, if not impossible, for business to borrow at a reasonable interest rate. As a result several large businesses were among the many thousands that could not survive. I believe that more well known businesses will close before 2020.

Banks in the UK were deregulated at the time of the Jupiter Neptune conjunction in Capricorn of 1997. It was within the waning square of 2006 that issues arose around sub prime mortgages and the cycle finished with the collapse of the entire financial system. According to comments by Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, in May 2012, he believed that he could see what might happen in 1997 but was powerless to interfere. He regrets that he and his colleagues did not 'shout from the rooftops' about the impending financial disaster.

By the Jupiter Neptune conjunction of December 2009 (Aquarius), the first recession had been established. By April 2012 the double dip recession was confirmed, with the economy bobbling along flatly. The Jupiter Neptune square in June 2012 can only acknowledge the reality resounding around Europe that with record unemployment and no confidence in the worldwide economy that the recession is set to continue. If anything, by the time of the opposition in September 2015 we will see at the very least the chance of a triple dip but I suspect that Barbault’s five-year minus period will prove to be an economic depression of global proportions. At the waning square of September 2019 we may see the first very tentative green shoots of recovery but proof of true confidence in the world economic recovery may not be observed until the new conjunction in Pisces of April 2022.

Uranus Saturn

The Saturn Uranus cycle is the challenge for us to change with the times. That which we structure (Saturn) may be right for today but our structure of just 30 years ago would not. We either adapt as a society or get left behind by those more able to embrace what is needed to evolve. The cycle began at the conjunction of 1988. Russia tried desperately to restructure its society with ‘Perestroika’, revolution in Estonia paved the way for a number of breakaway countries from the USSR and the break-up up of Yugoslavia, already showing discontent, erupted just three years later. There were many countries in Europe whose economic structure was out of touch with the developed world and the breaking down (Uranus) of structures (Saturn) that do not work very well was inevitable. Those economies that do not create a constructive and dynamic structure within their society run the risk of opening up a vacuum for dictatorship (Uranus) and death (Saturn) or at the very least a crystallized and uncompetitive market that cannot succeed.

The waxing square occurred in May 2000 just days after the ancient seven (Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn) combined in the sign of Taurus; all opposing Pluto and all square to Uranus and Neptune by astrological house. At the very least this was suggesting that the whole world, both personally and societally, was going to experience some serious changes. The last of the seven planets was Venus, which in its own sign of Taurus has very strong financial implications. Add to it a Saturn Uranus square and the suggestion of the need to examine where our financial market was heading is glaringly obvious in hindsight. At the time, however, there were world changing events taking place in Europe that one may argue mattered more than money. After the war in Kosovo followed the World Trade Centre in 2001 and then the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. The breaking down of structures was happening everywhere.

The Saturn Uranus opposition, November 2008, occurred just a couple of months after the announcement of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Where there may have been a possibility at the square to change course and adopt the right financial structure, by the opposition it was too late. With the damage already done we now had to rebuild that which should not have been torn down. In many ways this was a great example of too much Uranus and too little Saturn. Change is always necessary and it is right to feel the need to develop. But change without structure is chaos, which in this case ended up with global financial markets staring into the abyss of complete meltdown.

The next opportunity to begin to repair the damage and – this time – to build our economic structure with proper safeguards and regulations – will be at the point of the waning square, which is not until February 2021. The chances are we may know well before hand what it is that we want to achieve, but it may not be feasible to enact those changes until this time.

Uranus Jupiter

The Jupiter Uranus conjunction of 1997 occurred in Aquarius, suggesting that the social trend (Jupiter) undergoing changes (Uranus) was a collective one (Aquarius). The explosion of Internet and globalisation changed many things we did as a society including online shopping and electronic books. Computer technology exploded and has yet to stop falling over itself. The want now, have now, pay later culture fed voraciously on these new consumer led outlets without remission.

In 2010 the next conjunction occurred in Pisces, the last sign in the zodiac cycle, suggesting that the social trend is towards changing our ideals and finding confidence in a world that is not so hung up on target driven results. Jupiter Uranus in Pisces is a great place to share visions of the future and generate the confidence to have them realised. Yet we may not see the fruits of these visions until the waning square of January 2021. Having said that, the 2010 Jupiter Uranus conjunction remained in conjunction aspect right the way through to January 2011 when the Arab Spring began. When one considers the results so far of what has happened in many countries in the Middle East, the strength of belief (Jupiter) in reform (Uranus) it suggests that this particular cycle is very strong and will produce many changes that should ultimately lead to a better and more inclusive global society.

Saturn Jupiter

The final planetary cycle in the Barbault scale is Jupiter Saturn, the societal planets. It is a 20-year cycle that defines where we belong (Saturn) in the grand scheme of life and how we participate (Jupiter) within it. In May 2000 the new conjunction occurred in Taurus. Both Jupiter and Saturn had to square with Uranus before making conjunction, so with Uranus still applying by waxing square just two degrees past, the notion of opportunity to change ones life was incredibly strong. With the benefit of hindsight it is once again easy to see how the confidence of Jupiter and the opportunity of Uranus overshadowed the generally cautious Saturn. With the conjunction in Venus’s sign what ‘I have’ was emphasised more than what one could possibly afford or sustain. As this attitude spread also through financial institutions, the risk raking increased in tandem with increasing targets for greater and greater profits and bonuses. By the time of the Jupiter Saturn square of December 2005 the machine was unstoppable.

The Jupiter Saturn opposition occurred in December 2011. Greece was already feeling the debt crisis by May 2010 but in December 2011 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were signing off billions of Euros to Ireland and Portugal, Italy were placed under an administrative government, Spain has 24% unemployment, the highest rate in Europe, both the UK and France have plans for making the bulk of their cuts between 2013 and 2016 and Germany wants to make huge cuts even earlier than that (2014). Imagine viewing this cycle opposition as being ‘look (Saturn) at what you’ve done (Jupiter)’. But by the opposition the damage is done and we now reap what we have sown until the waning square in August 2015. What is left in the aftermath is what we have to work with until the new Jupiter Saturn conjunction of December 2020, which begins at the critical degree of zero degrees of Aquarius.

After 2020

There are at least 30 years of financial stability after 2020. It may well be a cautious world that ventures out with a more robust financial structure but it may not be bad thing to have factored a little moderation into daily life. Much would have been learned from the mistakes of the past. It looks certain that safeguards will be put in place to make sure that the kind of greed that created the financial crisis cannot be repeated.

However, the fate of the world was not intended to be decided by the few and it is precisely because the fate of the world was decided by the few that the financial crisis was allowed to happen. Every one of us has a right to participate in how our world evolves. For many of us it might only a small part, like voting in elections but the more involved we become in our community, our country, our world, the greater the opportunity will be to ensure that the voice of reason and balance is weaved into important decisions.

My reason for writing this article was not to pour doom and gloom into an already unhappy situation but to express the opportunity for us to not only learn from past mistakes but to actively engage in formulating a good and long lasting solution for the future. The so-called experts should have had the knowledge to stop the financial meltdown but they did not. So we cannot expect that the same experts will not simply attempt to regurgitate the same old solutions. The Universe demands reform and we must comply.

A Budget Of Containment

I recently wrote an article for Triond (and maybe Expertscolumn.com if they approve my writing) about how an extra 37p on a packet of cigarettes is going to make people think about quitting rather than actually quitting (see ‘Money To Burn’). Naturally it is my sincere hope that those who do even think about quitting will buy my ebook – somewhat modestly priced in comparison to a packet of cigarettes – 'Stop Smoking: Diary Of A Quitter'
There are some excellent ethical reasons to make smoking unsociable and something to consign to the ashtray of history as soon as it can but I somehow feel that in the 2012 budget, the Chancellor of the Exchequer was not thinking about it when he hiked up the cost. With the country in such deep debt he would have been thinking only about where he could funnel yet more money out of the taxpayer. Some people might think that his view is not unreasonable given the circumstances.

But the fact remains that by the time he announced the entire package, it became clear that the poorest in society would end up becoming worse off. Regard for example the 5p cut in top rate tax from 50p to 45p. That gives a huge amount of money back to the very top earners in the UK.

By comparison, the lowest earners will see a rise in personal allowance from April 2013 to just over £9,000 before paying tax. But so will the top earners, meaning that in fairness the lowest earners are further apart from the highest earners.

The pensioners will have their tax allowances frozen to await catch up form others in order to harmonize the tax system. This is a great idea (to simplify tax systems that is) but why not increase the other taxes incrementally to catch up with the pensioners? Oh yeah, money. So why was it not ‘Oh yeah, money’ when the chancellor cut the top rate of tax?

The chancellor claims that if the tax rate of 50p was lowered then the highest paid might…. MIGHT… be tempted to pay their taxes. I thought I heard that wrong but it is true. It is almost as if the top earners in the UK have some kind of choice as to whether they pay their taxes or not. I was always under the impression that tax was compulsory.

The chancellor also mentioned about how he was sickened by abuses of companies avoiding tax by buying houses, so he slapped a 15% stamp duty on all houses over 2 million being bought by companies. My guess is he just stopped companies buying 2 million plus houses. Result? No revenue.

But should the chancellor, if he was really sickened by tax avoidance, close the £120 billion pounds worth of loopholes in the tax system of which he enjoys as much as the rest of the very rich? He would almost certainly recoup the UKs debt a damned sight faster than trying to shaft old ladies out of their pension allowance.

To be fair, the chancellor did say that he was going to give pensioners a ‘massive’ rise of £5.00 something a week. Compare that to the 5p tax cut for the rich, netting maybe £10,000 in a year and the pensioner might just ‘harmonize’ the net gain with them for their one year in around 38 years time.

Petrol was already set to go up by 16p a gallon. Strangely enough, UK residents may be surprised to learn that unleaded petrol in the UK is still lower than the rest of Europe http://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/european-fuel-prices but Diesel is the most expensive because other European governments place a lower tax tariff on it, presumably to help businesses (Note this please Mr Osborne).

Add all the above to the tinkering with the Child allowance, the reductions in tax credits and 1.67 million unemployed and you do not have much of a recipe for growth. The chancellor will argue that he made the budget unashamedly geared towards business. I wonder, however, when the simple rule of supply and demand will demonstrate that any business without demand is going to fail.

Billy Bragg made a reasonable point on the UK programme Question Time, regarding recessions. He said that the only way to get growth was for the consumer to have the money to spend. With consumer spending comes a growth in demand and therefore a greater success in business.

What the chancellor, George Osborne, has done is given all the money to the people who don’t need it and taken more money from the people who need is most – the consumer. Why he believes this is good economics is quite frankly beyond my powers of reason. Perhaps he fears that too much money in the system now will overheat the economy and create inflation. Note however that the late 2011 inflation spike was due only to rises in VAT and utility bills (consumer involvement unnecessary).

The 2012 budget will do no more than contain everyone into the biggest rut you can imagine. Nothing will move because everyone will be out to consolidate what they have. The banks are unabashed in the way that they fail to lend to business because their main priority is to recapitalize all the money they lost with taxpayer’s money. The greed for profit will ensure that consumable goods are charged at the highest possible price. The poorest will batten down the hatches and spend only what they have to, which in some cases will be less than what they need to. More children and old people will live in poverty, wishing that just one of the £10,000 windfalls given to the very rich was theirs for a year.

The ideology of the Conservative party is ensconced deeply within the 2012 budget. To those people who are unaffected negatively by it, I am sure that the package makes perfect sense. But I am beginning to realize that the ideology of any party does not appear to have the one shred of understanding it needs to make any economic system right for everyone. That one shred, the most important perspective that is compulsory to making the whole economy work properly, is objectivity.

And that is what a smoker, especially at the poor end of society, does not have when he / she is a smoker. The addiction to nicotine clouds not only the judgement but also the common sense about how ridiculously expensive smoking has become and maybe it would be a fantastic idea to stop it. So instead they will find yet another reason to justify the expense of their habit and buy less food or clothing or heating. Maybe they won’t pay the rent on time or pay all of the council tax. The lack of objectivity creates its own reality in which the real world does not subscribe. The smoker cannot relate to a world that does not include cigarettes. So, like political parties toward their ideals, they live in a world of containment where smoking is the central theme around which all else revolves.

Shane Ward is the author of 'Stop Smoking: Diary Of A Quitter' , available at Synergebooks, Barnes & Noble, Amazon and other stores.

Broken Britain. Pointless Politics.

David Cameron, bless him, is a millionaire straight from Eton with influential friends and high powered connections. He has never known a day’s poverty in his life. He has not lived on a sink estate. He has not faced living in a gang culture. He has never known a dearth of opportunity. He is just the sort of person you would expect to have the right perspective of life to help tackle the troubles of people who live at the sharp end of it. No? Well he’s going to have a crack at it anyway.

Today (15 December 2011) starts the beginning of a brand new half a billion pound initiative to repair broken Britain. …or at least it is money to be spent around (not spent by, I hasten to add) 120,000 of the country’s most badly behaved families in an attempt to make them not so bad in the future. It all sounds so wonderfully brave and innovative. We save money in the long term by not having the police coming out to deal with their troubles so often, the ambulance turning up to deal with frequent mishaps, the kids go to school the adults go to work and everything in the garden will be absolutely ticketyboo.

There is, of course, a deep recession going on so money is difficult to come by. Local Government is shedding jobs like a winter coat in springtime to satisfy the demand for cuts in public sector workers while private business has created only less than 10% of the promised private sector jobs to compensate. So it comes as no surprise to find Mr Cameron announcing with pleasure that while Local Authorities would have to find 60% of the money for this initiative to even begin to take off, Central Government would ’match it’ with the other 40%. Sorry, did he say match? If one defines the word ‘match’ as ‘being equal to’ then alarm bells should be ringing at the treasury if the Prime Minister believes that 40% and 60% are equal. It also brings into question his perspective of other things, like responsibility and fairness and how on earth creating what would effectively be a social police force for socially displaced families is likely to achieve nothing more than limiting their involvement with other State departments.

David Cameron’s perspective of how to ‘fix’ these problem families centre around the typical conservative view of ‘rightness’, namely that the children should go to school, the adults should get a job and all the poverty, crime and dysfunction will disappear in a puff of magical right wing logic. What strikes me as the most bizarre observation in all this rolling up of sleeves to get on with the job of turning broken Britain around, and its full steam ahead towards a better and brighter future, is that David Cameron’s perspective is blind to the truth of the situation; he has to be because the cost of fixing it goes way beyond half a billion pounds and way beyond ‘educating’ a few families.

This scheme, which is nothing new as it happens because the Labour party looked at something similar before the Tories picked up the torch and put their own unique -watered down - spin on it, is clearly designed to get dysfunctional families to conform to the norms of society with an emphasis placed on the orderly fashion of education, employment, abiding by the law and being a considerate neighbour. It sounds fantastic – too good to be true. What it does not do is address where dysfunctional families are now and how they got there in the first place. In short, the scheme puts the cart before the horse because no sooner does the Government ‘fix’ one generation of misfits, there will be another generation just around the corner. Why is that? Because Britain has problems like everyone else in the world that cannot be solved as conveniently as politicians would wish. This scheme, fanfare announced in all its glory, is a great example of political pointlessness. If you are not going to tackle the real problems there is no point in tinkering around the edges.

Poverty is by far the number one issue in the capitalist system, and the UK is not alone in this. Some people have gotten so good at manipulating the capitalist system that they have accelerated its evolution towards its terminal conclusion. Where everything is made and sold on the basis of profit, and where there can only be a finite amount of money to play with, eventually just one person / company / corporation will own everything and the system must collapse. Not even the monopoly commissions can prevent big business and powerful individuals from hoarding money. They cannot be forced to spend what they don’t need to spend. And while this slow-release cancer causes pain and misery among the millions of ‘have-nots’ the rich and powerful stick their hands in their pockets and pretend it isn’t there.

At the other end of the scale are the millions of people who have nothing. Not only do they not have the advantage of rich parents / contacts etc, they are born into a societal structure that knows it cannot compete with the expertise of consumerist gurus, clever product advertising and mind manipulating media all hell bent on worshipping the altar of money and getting as much of it as possible. One of the most precious of commodities is truth and there is precious little out there. The truth for many dysfunctional families is the daily struggle to make ends meet and to keep a roof over their heads. The social context in which to describe the problems are very complicated, and maybe if a report made by the individuals (who will be charged with trying to make the money offered by Cameron worth spending) helped to quantify the source of these problems, it might lift the blinkers from politicians and business alike; but I am not holding my breath on that one.

The child we want to send to school to learn is fed on the cheapest rubbish available because it is all the family can afford. But why does a responsible Government allow poisonous substances to be fed to our children at all? Adults may choose to drink alcohol or smoke. Both are poisonous to the system and there are some things that history proves would simply go underground if a prohibition were placed on them. But we don’t allow our children to drink alcohol or smoke tobacco because we know it would be bad for them. Poisoning our children is surely something that should be banned no matter how it is packaged. Fast food restaurants are bad enough but supermarket shelves are also stuffed full of additives, e-numbers, high sugar, high salt, high fat that is the real reason behind childhood obesity, attention deficit, anti social behaviour and lack of concentration at school. All of these packages of poison were not available in the mid 20th century, where most right wing politicians like to point out at how good everyone was back then compared to today. They could only buy fresh food – the good food. But the good food today is too expensive for poor families. Even if we forced the food industry into a universal colour code system to identify healthy and unhealthy food, families in poverty will still struggle to afford to make the changes because they can’t negotiate on the rent, gas, electric, water rates and so on. Even poor families need some societal conformity but the cost of telephone, TV, Internet access adds to the pressure to economise on choice of food.

Mr Cameron’s scheme will not address families where mental health issues are present. In many cases the carers must be full time family members who therefore cannot escape the poverty trap. Ordinary families, without looking after people with mental health issues, disability issues and health problems that prevent them from working, have to deal with the stresses and anxieties that go along with living in a poverty state. For families where one of the above issues is an added problem, there is no solution, no support and no avenue open to them to escape it. Once again the issue of poverty is the touch paper to which all dysfunction that impinges on society beyond the confines of the family home begins.

Recreational drugs is a big issue that I have discussed at length, so to avoid repetition please see http://ec.europa.eu/justice/anti-drugs/files/contribution-ward-shane-uk_en.pdf which is an open letter to the European Commission in advance of their border control strategy for drugs and contraband.

Likewise the lack of work opportunities for people with criminal records is discussed in full on http://shaneward22.blogspot.com/2011/09/discrimination-against-ex-offenders-in_15.html

The above list is far from exhaustive but in these three issues alone exist fundamental issues that David Cameron’s scheme will not tackle – and why it will therefore fail to make the slightest impact. Perhaps there are some who prefer the way broken Britain limps along and are happy to let the masses scrabble around in perpetual ignorance, while the pointless politics of left and right wing thinking vie for supremacy over each other. In my humble opinion, Mr Cameron’s scheme is just another distraction from what really needs to be done.

What I believe should be made public, and it would seem to be one of the best kept secrets in the UK, is the formula that the Government uses to work out welfare benefit. The letter accompanying the award for Income Support, for example, says that the amount payable to an individual is the lowest amount the Government believes is required for a person to live. Who knows if the formula for benefit has ever changed from its inception in 1946 but what I can say for certain is that the poverty of many families – and their subsequent reaction in the form of criminality, anti social behaviour, lack of education and work opportunities – are inherently linked to causes that David Cameron wants to ignore. To steal one of Al Gore’s catch phrases, there are some inconvenient truths that must be addressed to solve the problems that David Cameron says he wishes to eradicate. And it won’t be achieved by throwing money at the squeakiest cogs. Perhaps instead of looking at how society demonstrates symptoms of dysfunction within the current models and try to make them conform to those models, we should perhaps be looking at the models themselves to see how they cause dysfunction. David Cameron, like all staunch right wing supporters, is happy to tell everyone about grasping the nettle of a problem to solve it. Well this problem is particularly thorny and no one has grasped it.